Learning from failure

We study decentralized learning in organizations. Decentralization is captured through a symmetry constraint on agents’ strategies. Among such attainable strategies, we solve for optimal and equilibrium strategies. We model the organization as a repeated game with imperfectly observable actions. A fixed but unknown subset of action profiles are successes and all other action profiles are failures. The game is played until either there is a success or the time horizon is reached. For any time horizon, including infinity, we demonstrate existence of optimal attainable strategies and show that they are Nash equilibria. For some time horizons, we can solve explicitly for the optimal attainable strategies and show uniqueness. The solution connects the learning behavior of agents to the fundamentals that characterize the organization: Agents in the organization respond more slowly to failure as the future becomes more important, the size of the organization increases and the probability of success decreases.Game theory

Predicted and actual 2-year structural and pain progression in the IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis cohort

ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03883568[Abstract] Objectives: The IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis study used machine learning (ML) to predict structural and/or pain progression, expressed by a structural (S) and pain (P) predicted-progression score, to select patients from existing cohorts. This study evaluates the actual 2-year progression within the IMI-APPROACH, in relation to the predicted-progression scores. Methods: Actual structural progression was measured using minimum joint space width (minJSW). Actual pain (progression) was evaluated using the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcomes Score (KOOS) pain questionnaire. Progression was presented as actual change (Δ) after 2 years, and as progression over 2 years based on a per patient fitted regression line using 0, 0.5, 1 and 2-year values. Differences in predicted-progression scores between actual progressors and non-progressors were evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) reported. Using Youden's index, optimal cut-offs were chosen to enable evaluation of both predicted-progression scores to identify actual progressors. Results: Actual structural progressors were initially assigned higher S predicted-progression scores compared with structural non-progressors. Likewise, actual pain progressors were assigned higher P predicted-progression scores compared with pain non-progressors. The AUC-ROC for the S predicted-progression score to identify actual structural progressors was poor (0.612 and 0.599 for Δ and regression minJSW, respectively). The AUC-ROC for the P predicted-progression score to identify actual pain progressors were good (0.817 and 0.830 for Δ and regression KOOS pain, respectively). Conclusion: The S and P predicted-progression scores as provided by the ML models developed and used for the selection of IMI-APPROACH patients were to some degree able to distinguish between actual progressors and non-progressors

Neuropathic Pain in the IMI-APPROACH Knee Osteoarthritis Cohort: Prevalence and Phenotyping

The study is registered under clinicaltrials.gov nr: NCT03883568.[Abstract] Objectives: Osteoarthritis (OA) patients with a neuropathic pain (NP) component may represent a specific phenotype. This study compares joint damage, pain and functional disability between knee OA patients with a likely NP component, and those without a likely NP component. Methods: Baseline data from the Innovative Medicines Initiative Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway knee OA cohort study were used. Patients with a painDETECT score ≥19 (with likely NP component, n=24) were matched on a 1:2 ratio to patients with a painDETECT score ≤12 (without likely NP component), and similar knee and general pain (Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score pain and Short Form 36 pain). Pain, physical function and radiographic joint damage of multiple joints were determined and compared between OA patients with and without a likely NP component. Results: OA patients with painDETECT scores ≥19 had statistically significant less radiographic joint damage (p≤0.04 for Knee Images Digital Analysis parameters and Kellgren and Lawrence grade), but an impaired physical function (p<0.003 for all tests) compared with patients with a painDETECT score ≤12. In addition, more severe pain was found in joints other than the index knee (p≤0.001 for hips and hands), while joint damage throughout the body was not different. Conclusions: OA patients with a likely NP component, as determined with the painDETECT questionnaire, may represent a specific OA phenotype, where local and overall joint damage is not the main cause of pain and disability. Patients with this NP component will likely not benefit from general pain medication and/or disease-modifying OA drug (DMOAD) therapy. Reserved inclusion of these patients in DMOAD trials is advised in the quest for successful OA treatments

Clinical characteristics of women captured by extending the definition of severe postpartum haemorrhage with 'refractoriness to treatment': a cohort study

Background: The absence of a uniform and clinically relevant definition of severe postpartum haemorrhage hampers comparative studies and optimization of clinical management. The concept of persistent postpartum haemorrhage, based on refractoriness to initial first-line treatment, was proposed as an alternative to common definitions that are either based on estimations of blood loss or transfused units of packed red blood cells (RBC). We compared characteristics and outcomes of women with severe postpartum haemorrhage captured by these three types of definitions. Methods: In this large retrospective cohort study in 61 hospitals in the Netherlands we included 1391 consecutive women with postpartum haemorrhage who received either ≥4 units of RBC or a multicomponent transfusion. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of women with severe postpartum haemorrhage defined as persistent postpartum haemorrhage were compared to definitions based on estimated blood loss or transfused units of RBC within 24 h following birth. Adverse maternal outcome was a composite of maternal mortality, hysterectomy, arterial embolisation and intensive care unit admission. Results: One thousand two hundred sixty out of 1391 women (90.6%) with postpartum haemorrhage fulfilled the definition of persistent postpartum haemorrhage. The majority, 820/1260 (65.1%), fulfilled this definition within 1 h following birth, compared to 819/1391 (58.7%) applying the definition of ≥1 L blood loss and 37/845 (4.4%) applying the definition of ≥4 units of RBC. The definition persistent postpartum haemorrhage captured 430/471 adverse maternal outcomes (91.3%), compared to 471/471 (100%) for ≥1 L blood loss and 383/471 (81.3%) for ≥4 units of RBC. Persistent postpartum haemorrhage did not capture all adverse outcomes because of missing data on timing of initial, first-line treatment. Conclusion: The definition persistent postpartum haemo

Does Training of the Nondominant Upper Extremity Reduce the Surgeon's Muscular Strain During Laparoscopy?: Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial

Contains fulltext : 118310.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)Introduction. In laparoscopy, suboptimal ergonomics frequently lead to morbidity for surgeons. Physical complaints are more commonly reported on the dominant upper extremity. This may be the consequence of challenging laparoscopic tasks being easier to perform with the dominant side. The authors hypothesized that specific training of the nondominant upper extremity may equip this side better and lead to a more equal distribution of physical load. Materials and methods. Participants (medical doctors) were randomized to a 3-week training schedule or no training. The training program consisted of training the nondominant upper extremity. Participants were not allowed to train on a laparoscopic box or virtual reality trainer during the study period. Baseline and outcome measurements after 3 weeks were examined with the use of EMG measurements during a validated task on a laparoscopic box trainer. Muscle strain of the trapezius and deltoid muscles and effective alternation of brachioradial and abductor pollicis brevis muscles were used as outcome variables. Results. In all, 26 participants were included. EMG analysis revealed that participants in both intervention and control groups showed a decrease in muscle strain of trapezius and deltoid muscles. However, there were no significant differences between groups. Those in the intervention group showed significantly better alternation in the brachioradial muscle. Conclusion. Training the nondominant upper extremity leads to better alternated use of lower-arm muscles during a validated box trainer task. Repeating the task after 3 weeks led to less muscle tension in the trapezius and deltoid muscles

Bridging resilience and complexity indicators of human health

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A comparison of the impact of screen-positive results obtained from ultrasound and biochemical screening for Down syndrome in the first trimester: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE: To compare the experiences of women who received a screen-positive test result for Down syndrome after nuchal translucency screening or after biochemical screening in the first trimester of pregnancy in the Netherlands. METHOD: Semi-quantitative questionnaires were sent to 40 women with a screen-positive test result for Down syndrome in the first trimester of pregnancy: 20 had undergone nuchal translucency screening (NT group) and 20 had undergone serum screening (PAPP-A and free beta-hCG) (SS group). In all the cases, chorionic villus sampling (CVS) had not revealed any chromosomal abnormalities. RESULTS: The major reason for undergoing the screening test in both groups of women was to be more reassured about the health of the baby. In the NT group, 5 out of the 20 women stated that they had suddenly been confronted with the NT measurement during the ultrasound examination without even being asked, or had been caught by surprise about the possibility. Together with two other women, they felt that at that stage they had been insufficiently informed about what the test meant. In the SS group, two women also held this opinion. In 10 out of the 20 women in the SS group, the positive-screening result had caused (a great deal of) anxiety. In the NT group, this proportion was as high as 18 out of the 20. Six of the women in the NT group mentioned that 'seeing the baby' had been an important factor in their decision to undergo CVS. Even after a favourable result of CVS, a proportion of the pregnant women were still feeling anxious about the health of their baby (5 women in the SS group and 12 in the NT group). Nevertheless, a large proportion of the women in both groups was pleased that they had undergone the screening test. Only a few of them stated that they would not choose the same screening test again in a future pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: An unfavourable screening result after NT screening appeared to have a greater impact than an unfavourable result after serum screening. This might partly be explained by the ultrasound examination visualising the increased risk during NT screening. An additional important role may have been played by the fact that an abnormal NT screening result implies an increased risk of other disorders besides Down syndrome, which the women should be informed about beforehand. Several factors place special demands on the counselling prior to NT screening. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

A sex-specific association between incident radiographic osteoarthritis of hip or knee and incident peripheral arterial calcifications : 8-year prospective data from Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK)

Objectives: There is sparse evidence for a relationship between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and osteoarthritis (OA). We investigated the association between incidence of arterial calcifications and incidence of radiographic knee and/or hip OA. Design: We used baseline and 8-year follow-up data of Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK). Knees and hips were either Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 0 or 1 at baseline. Arterial calcifications were scored on hip and knee radiographs using a four-grade scale. Scores were summed for patient-level analyses. To investigate incidence, participants with arterial calcifications at baseline or missing follow-up were excluded. Incident OA was defined per joint as KL ≥ 2 or prosthesis at year eight. The association between incidenct of arterial calcifications and incident OA was studied using mixed-effects logistic regression. Results: Of 763 participants included, 623 (82%) were women. Mean (sd) age was 56 (5.1) years, mean (sd) body mass index (BMI) 26.2 (4.1) kg/m2. Arterial calcifications developed in 174 participants (283 joints). OA developed in 456 participants (778 joints). Sex modified the association between arterial calcification and OA. In women, incident arterial calcification around a joint was positively associated with incident OA in that joint (adjusted OR 2.51 (95% CI 1.57-4.03)). In men, no association was observed on joint-level, but at patient-level the arterial calcification sum score was negatively associated with incident OA (adjusted OR per point increase 0.70 (95% CI 0.54-0.90)) indicating a systemic effect. Conclusions: We observed sex-dependent associations between incident arterial calcification and incident radiographic knee and/or hip OA, which differs between joint- and patient-level